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Economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in India

Map showing real GDP growth rates in 2020, as projected by the IMF.
Date	March 2020–December 2021
Type	Global recession
Cause	COVID-19 pandemic-induced market instability and lockdown
Total Economic Stimulus	₹29.87 lakh crore (equivalent to ₹35 trillion or US$440 billion in 2023) (uptil 31 October 2020)
Impact	Largest GDP contraction ever in Q2 (April–June) FY2020–2021 at −24% Sharp rise in unemployment Stress on supply chains Decrease in government income Collapse of the tourism industry Collapse of the hospitality industry Reduced consumer activity Plunge in fuel consumption. Rise in LPG sales. Trade tensions with China

The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in India has been largely disruptive. India's growth in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year 2020 went down to 3.1% according to the Ministry of Statistics. The Chief Economic Adviser to the Government of India said that this drop is mainly due to the coronavirus pandemic effect on the Indian economy. Notably, India had also been witnessing a pre-pandemic slowdown, and according to the World Bank, the current pandemic has "magnified pre-existing risks to India's economic outlook".

The World Bank and rating agencies had initially revised India's growth for FY2021 with the lowest figures India has seen in three decades since India's economic liberalization in the 1990s. However, after the announcement of the economic package in mid-May, India's GDP estimates were downgraded even more to negative figures, signaling a deep recession. (The ratings of over 30 countries have been downgraded during this period.) On 26 May, CRISIL announced that this will perhaps be India's worst recession since independence. State Bank of India research estimates a contraction of over 40% in the GDP in Q1. The contraction will not be uniform, rather it will differ according to various parameters such as state and sector. On 1 September 2020, the Ministry of Statistics released the GDP figures for Q1 (April to June) FY21, which showed a contraction of 24% as compared to the same period the year before.

According to Nomura India Business Resumption Index economic activity fell from 82.9 on 22 March to 44.7 on 26 April. By 13 September 2020 economic activity was nearly back to pre-lockdown.^[1] Unemployment rose from 6.7% on 15 March to 26% on 19 April and then back down to pre-lockdown levels by mid-June.^[2][3] During the lockdown, an estimated 140 million (140 million) people lost employment while salaries were cut for many others.^[2][4] More than 45% of households across the nation have reported an income drop as compared to the previous year.^[5] The Indian economy was expected to lose over ₹32,000 crore (equivalent to ₹380 billion or US$4.7 billion in 2023) every day during the first 21-days of complete lockdown, which was declared following the coronavirus outbreak.^[6][7] Under complete lockdown, less than a quarter of India's $2.8 trillion economic movement was functional.^[8] Up to 53% of businesses in the country were projected to be significantly affected.^[9] Supply chains have been put under stress with the lockdown restrictions in place; initially, there was a lack of clarity in streamlining what an "essential" is and what is not.^[10] Those in the informal sectors and daily wage groups have been at the most risk.^[11] A large number of farmers around the country who grow perishables also faced uncertainty.^[10]

Major companies in India such as Larsen & Toubro, Bharat Forge, UltraTech Cement, Grasim Industries, Aditya Birla Group, BHEL and Tata Motors temporarily suspended or significantly reduced operations. Young startups have been impacted as funding has fallen.^[12][13] Fast-moving consumer goods companies in the country have significantly reduced operations and are focusing on essentials. Stock markets in India posted their worst losses in history on 23 March 2020.^[14] However, on 25 March, one day after a complete 21-day lockdown was announced by the Prime Minister, SENSEX and NIFTY posted their biggest gains in 11 years.^[15]

The Government of India announced a variety of measures to tackle the situation, from food security and extra funds for healthcare and for the states, to sector related incentives and tax deadline extensions. On 26 March a number of economic relief measures for the poor were announced totaling over ₹170,000 crore (equivalent to ₹2.0 trillion or US$25 billion in 2023). The next day the Reserve Bank of India also announced a number of measures which would make available ₹374,000 crore (equivalent to ₹4.4 trillion or US$55 billion in 2023) to the country's financial system. The World Bank and Asian Development Bank approved support to India to tackle the coronavirus pandemic.^[16]

The different phases of India's lockdown up to the "first unlock" on 1 June had varying degrees of the opening of the economy. On 17 April, the RBI Governor announced more measures to counter the economic impact of the pandemic including ₹50,000 crore (equivalent to ₹590 billion or US$7.4 billion in 2023) special finance to NABARD, SIDBI, and NHB.^[17] On 18 April, to protect Indian companies during the pandemic, the government changed India's foreign direct investment policy. The Department of Military Affairs put on hold all capital acquisitions for the beginning of the financial year. The Chief of Defence Staff has announced that India should minimize costly defense imports and give a chance to domestic production; also making sure not to "misrepresent operational requirements".^[18][19]

On 12 May, the Prime Minister announced an overall economic stimulus package worth ₹20 lakh crore (equivalent to ₹24 trillion or US$290 billion in 2023). Two days later the Cabinet cleared a number of proposals in the economic package including a free food grains package. In December 2020, a Right to Information petition revealed that less than 10% of this stimulus had been actually disbursed.^[20] By July 2020, a number of economic indicators showed signs of rebound and recovery. On 12 October and 12 November, the government announced two more economic stimulus package, bringing the total economic stimulus to ₹29.87 lakh crore (equivalent to ₹35 trillion or US$440 billion in 2023).^[21] By December 2021, India was back to pre-COVID-19 growth.^[22]

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Government actions

Globally in a poll by the 'Edelman Trust Barometer', out of the 13,200+ people polled, 67% agreed that "The government's highest priority should be saving as many lives as possible even if it means the economy will recover more slowly"; that is, life should come before livelihood.^[25] For India, the poll showed a ratio of 64% to 36%, where 64% of the people agreed that saving as many lives as possible was a priority, and 36% agreed that saving jobs and restarting the economy was the priority.^[25]

In India the life versus livelihood debate also played out, with the government first announcing that life would be prioritized over livelihood, which later changed to an equal importance being given to life and livelihood.^[26][27] By mid-May the center was keen to resume economic activities, while the Chief Ministers had mixed reactions.^[28]

Prime Minister Modi announced the first 21 days of India's lockdown on 24 March. During this address to the nation he said, "Jaan hai toh jahaan hai" (transl. Only if there is life there will be livelihood).^[26][27] On 11 April, in a meeting with the Chief Minister's of India, the Prime Minister said "Our mantra earlier was jaan hai toh jahaan hai but now it is jaan bhi jahaan bhi (transl. Both, lives and livelihood matter equally)."^[26][29] On 14 April, another address to the nation was made by Modi in which he extended the lockdown, with adjustments, to 3 May.^[30] In the Prime Minister's fifth meeting with the Chief Ministers on 11 May, the Prime Minister said that Indians must prepare for the post coronavirus pandemic world, just as the world changed after the world wars.^[31][32] During the meeting Modi said "Jan se lekar jag tak" (transl. From an individual to the whole of humanity) would be the new principle and way of life.^[31][33] On 12 May, the Prime Minister addressed the nation saying that the coronavirus pandemic was an opportunity for India to increase self-reliance. He proposed the Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan (Self-reliant India Mission) economic package.^[34]

Timeline

2020

• On 19 March the formation of the COVID-19 Economic Response Task Force was announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his live address to the nation.^[35][36][37] The task force was led by the finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman.^[38] Though not formally constituted or no official date for relief packages being made, the consultation process with concerned parties had begun immediately.^[39][40] The Ministry of Finance immediately started consultations with the RBI and ministries to take stock of most affected sectors like aviation, hospitality, and MSMEs.^[40]
• On 21 March 2020, the Union cabinet approved incentives worth ₹40,995 crore (equivalent to ₹480 billion or US$6.0 billion in 2023) for electronic manufacturing.^[41][42]
• Various state governments announced financial assistance for the poor in the unorganised sector. On 21 March the Uttar Pradesh government under Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath decided to give a direct money transfer of ₹1,000 (equivalent to ₹1,200 or US$15 in 2023) to all daily wage laborers in the state^[43] and the following day Punjab announced ₹3,000 (equivalent to ₹3,500 or US$44 in 2023) each for all registered construction workers in the state.^[44] On 23 March it was announced that Haryana labourers, street vendors and rickshaw pullers will be provided an assistance of ₹1,000 per week directly deposited into their bank accounts. Below Poverty Line families would be provided rations (including rice, wheat, mustard oil, sugar) free of cost for the month of April.^[45]
• On 24 March in his address to the nation, the Prime Minister announced a ₹15,000 crore (equivalent to ₹180 billion or US$2.2 billion in 2023) fund for the healthcare sector.^[46]
• On 24 March the Finance Minister made a number of announcements related to the economy such as extending last dates for filing GST returns and income tax returns.^[47] The due dates for the Sabka Vishwas (Legacy Dispute Resolution) Scheme 2019, customs clearances and for compliance matters under the Customs Act and associated laws was extended to June 2020.^[48]

Lockdown Phase 1 (25 March – 14 April)

• On 25 March the Modi government announced the world's largest food security scheme for 800 million people across the country.^[49] Cabinet Minister Prakash Javadekar made the announcement in a press conference that the ration would be 7 kg every month (which would include wheat at a cost of ₹2 (equivalent to ₹2.00 or 2.5¢ US in 2023) per kg and rice at ₹3 (equivalent to ₹4.00 or 5.0¢ US in 2023) per kg.)^[49]
• On 25 March the Uttar Pradesh government banned people from doing the manufacture and sale of pan masala, stating in the order that "spitting pan masala can help in spreading Covid-19".^[50] Following this, other states such as Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat also banned spitting in public places.^[51][52][53]
• On 26 March the Finance Minister announced a number of economic relief measures for the poor. hungry amidst the lockdown.^[54] Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana beneficiaries will get free cylinders for at least three months. This will benefit over 80  million Below Poverty Line families.^[54][55] The government would expedite payment of the first installment (₹2,000) due in 2020–21 in April itself under the Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi (PM-KISAN). For the organised sector worker, the government will pay the Employees' Provident Fund (EPF) contributions of both sides for 8  million employees of small companies who earn up to ₹15,000 a month. The raise in the threshold from ₹100,000 to ₹10  million for triggering insolvency proceedings under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) was done to help MSMEs. State governments were given various instructions and guidelines such as diverting district mineral funds for health needs relating to the pandemic.^[54]
• On 26 March India participated in the virtual 'Extraordinary G20 Leaders' Summit'. The G20 nations decided to inject over $5 trillion into the global economy to counteract the pandemic's impacts. They agreed to work together, to strengthen the World Health Organisation, develop a vaccine and make it available. They decided to share timely and transparent information, materials for research and development and data. Besides expanding manufacturing capacity for medical supplies, they agreed to ensure smooth flows of critical supplies.^[56][57]
• On 27 March the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das made a number of announcements including EMIs being put on hold for three months and reducing Repo Rates. Other measures introduced will make available a total ₹374,000 crore (equivalent to ₹4.4 trillion or US$55 billion in 2023) to the country's financial system.^[58] Delhi government announced that from the 28th they will be providing free food to 400,000 every day.^[59] Over 500 hunger relief centres have been set by the Delhi government.^[60]
• On 27 March the Rajasthan government decided to deduct the salaries of all its officers and employees from one to five days, with the money going into the Chief Ministers Fund.^[61]
• On 28 March the Prime Minister launched a new fund called PM CARES fund for combating coronavirus-like situations.^[62]
• On 30 March it was announced that the UP government would transfer ₹611 crore (equivalent to ₹719 crore or US$90 million in 2023) to 2,715,000 workers under MNREGA scheme.^[63]
• On 1 April the RBI announced more measures to deal with the economic fallout of COVID-19.^[64] WMA and short-term liquidity was increased to provide relief to state governments; exporters have also been granted some relief in the form of relaxed repatriation limits.^[64]
• On 2 April the World Bank approved US$1 billion emergency financing for India to tackle coronavirus labelled 'India COVID-19 Emergency Response and Health Systems Preparedness Project'.^[16][65][66]
• On 3 April the central government released ₹17,287 crore (equivalent to ₹200 billion or US$2.5 billion in 2023) to different states to help combat coronavirus. The Ministry of Home Affairs approved ₹11,092 crore (equivalent to ₹130 billion or US$1.6 billion in 2023) for states as relief under the State Disaster Risk Management Fund.^[67]
• On 6 April a 30% salary cut for one year was announced for the President, Vice President, Prime Minister, Governors, Members of Parliament and Ministers.^[68][69] It was also decided to suspend the MPLADS for two years and transfer the money, about ₹7,900 crore (equivalent to ₹93 billion or US$1.2 billion in 2023), into the Consolidated Fund of India.^[69]
• On 8 April the Department of Expenditure, Finance Ministry, allowed states net market borrowings of ₹320,481 crore (equivalent to ₹3.8 trillion or US$47 billion in 2023) between April and December.^[70][71] ₹3,000 crore (equivalent to ₹35 billion or US$440 million in 2023) of funds under the PM Garib Kalyan Yojana were given to over 20 million workers engaged in construction work by the various states and UTs.^[72][73] To provide relief to tax payers amid the COVID-19 crisis, the government decided to release ₹18,000 crore (equivalent to ₹210 billion or US$2.7 billion in 2023).^[74]
• On 10 April the Asian Development Bank (ADB) assured India of ₹15,800 crore (equivalent to ₹190 billion or US$2.3 billion in 2023) assistance in the COVID-19 pandemic fight.^[75]
• On 14 April at 10 am the Prime Minister made a public speech in which he announced the extension of the nationwide lockdown, as well as a calibrated reopening. "From the economy's point of view, the lockdown undoubtedly looks costly right now, but compared to the lives of Indian citizens, it is nothing" (translation, original in Hindi).^[76] A new set of guidelines for the calibrated opening of the economy and relaxation of the lockdown were also set in place which would take effect from 20 April.^[77]

Lockdown Phase 2 (15 April – 3 May)

• On 15 April as part of the new lockdown 2.0 guidelines, the Ministry of Home Affairs announced, among other things, that all agricultural and horticultural activities will remain fully functional.^[78] Information technology companies can function with 50% staff.^[79] The partial lift of restrictions would take place from 20 April.^[80]
• On 17 April, RBI announced more measures to counter the economic impact of the pandemic including ₹50,000 crore (equivalent to ₹590 billion or US$7.4 billion in 2023) special finance to NABARD, SIDBI, and NHB.^[17] Providing more relief to state governments, WMA limits have been increased by 60 per cent.^[17]
• On 18 April, India changed its FDI policy to protect Indian companies from "opportunistic acquisitions" during the COVID-19 pandemic.^[81][82]
• On 20 April limited economic activity is expected to resume outside of the COVID-19 containment zones.^[83] During this selective relaxation of restrictions, numerous activities will remain prohibited such as educational institutions, passenger movement by trains, cinema halls, malls, shopping complexes and gymnasiums.^[84] Telangana was the first state to extend the lockdown to 7 May, beyond the national lockdown date of 3 May.^[85]
• On 21 April it was announced that a team from "The Technology Information, Forecasting and Assessment Council" (TIFAC)" under the Department of Science and Technology are preparing a white paper on the revival of the India economy.^[86] TIFAC has a "mandate to think for the future".^[86]
• On 23 April The Kerala government has decided to defer one month's salaries of employees. The government will reduce the salaries of all categories of government employees including teachers, university officers and employees in all PSUs, equivalent to a six days' worth salaries every month.^[87][88]
• On 23–24 April banks from the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) agreed upon a "joint roadmap for economic recovery".^[89]
• On 25 April the Ministry of Home Affairs allowed the re-opening of some shops under certain restrictions.^[90] As per the "national directives for COVID-19 management", liquor and other shops would remain closed.^[91] These relaxations do not apply to hotspots.^[92]
• On 28 April the ADB approved a ₹10,500 crore (equivalent to ₹120 billion or US$1.5 billion in 2023) loan to India to combat the pandemic.^[93] The Punjab government formed a group of experts for reviving the economy following the pandemic led by Montek Singh Ahluwalia and with former Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh to provide guidance.^[94]
• On 4 May India went into its third stage of lockdown. The country was divided into various zones (green, orange, red, containment) and as per the zone the economy has been opened up.^[95]

Lockdown Phase 3 (4–17 May)

• On 5 May Maharashtra put a hold on capital works till March next year and imposed a 67% cut in development spend for 2020–21. This is the largest cut in expenditure since the state was formed.^[98]
• On 7 May in a telephonic conversation with Indian External Affairs Minister, the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Japan "requested cooperation for the resumption of activities by Japanese companies in India." Japan has around 1440 companies in India.^[99][100]
• On 11 May the Prime Minister, in a meeting with the Chief Ministers, asked the Minister's to each come up with a plan for resuming activity following the third extension of the lockdown on 17 May.^[33] The Prime Minister emphasized the need to start reopening the economy, while some of the Chief Ministers had their doubts related to the nature of relaxations.^[28]

Economic package 1.0 announcements (12–17 May)

• On 12 May the Prime Minister announced an overall economic package worth ₹20 lakh crore (equivalent to ₹24 trillion or US$290 billion in 2023), adding that the fourth phase of the lock down will be different with new rules.^[101] This Rs 20 trillion (short scale) includes the previous government packages (Rs 1.7 trillion (short scale)) as well as the RBI decisions (Rs 5–6 trillion (short scale)). They make up about 40% of the package.^[102]
• On 13 May the Finance Minister, Nirmala Sitharaman, and the Minister of State for Finance and Corporate Affairs, Anurag Thakur, elaborated on the financial package that was announced by the Prime Minister the day before.^[103] The definition of MSMEs was revised, which allows more companies to avail the benefits of MSME schemes.^[104] The announcements on the first day also included collateral free loans and bank guarantees that would allow resumption of work for many MSMEs. For non-bank lenders a liquidity scheme and partial credit guarantee scheme. Tax deadlines were extended.^[104]
• On 14 May the Finance Minister, for the second day, continued announcing the details of the economic package. Migrants, farmers, street vendors among others were covered in the package and the "One Nation One Ration Card" scheme was emphasized.^[105][106]
• On 15 May the Finance Minister, for the third day, continued the announcement of the economic package.^[107][108] Operation Greens was extended from tomatoes, onion and potatoes (TOP) to all fruits and vegetables.^[109] Cereals, edible oils, oil seeds, potato and onion were deregulated (except in exceptional circumstances) and no stock limit shall apply for storage as was proposed Amendment in Essential Commodities Act (1958).^[110] Matsya Sampada Yojana was announced for fisheries and animal husbandry infrastructure fund was announced.^[104] Agri-infrastructure fund, agricultural marketing reforms for farmers and fair price legal framework support for farmers were among other things covered.^[104]
• On 16 May the Finance Minister, for the fourth day, continued the announcement of the economic package.^[111] A fund for farm-gate infrastructure was announced, amendments to the Essential Commodities Act, as well as the opening up of the defence sector, power sector and space sector for privatization. While not all the measures in the package provided immediate relief, the Finance Minister said that the immediate needs of the country had also been addressed.^[112]
• On 17 May the Finance Minister concluded the announcement of the economic package.^[111]

Lockdown Phase 4 (18–31 May)

• On 20 May the Cabinet of India cleared some proposals of the economic package, including a free food grain package and collateral free credit for MSMEs.^[113][114]
• On 22 May the RBI Governor held an unannounced press conference in which he extended the moratorium on loans^[115] and cut repo and reverse repo rates among other things.^[116] The RBI Governor said that food inflation will be a stressor,^[117] but added that the forecast for normal monsoons and positive growth in the next quarter would be a positive,^[118] and that "the combination of fiscal, monetary and administrative measures will create conditions that will enable a gradual economic revival going forward."^[119] RBI also allocated funds for Exim Banks and an extension to SIDBI.^[120] The measures were a result of the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee on 22 May.^[121]
• On 25 May domestic flights resumed with limited operations.^[122][123]
• On 30 May new lockdown guidelines were announced by the Ministry of Home Affairs which would come into effect in a phased manner from 1 June onwards. Many of the new guidelines "have an economic focus".^{[124][125][126]}

Unlock 1

• On 1 June Delhi allowed all industries and markets to reopen including barber shops and salons; curfew time changed to 9 pm to 5 am while educational institutes were to remain closed.^[127] Numerous public utilities, businesses and activities such as gymnasiums, cinema halls and the Delhi Metro to remain closed.^[126]
• On 2 June mobile manufacturing incentives were offered by the government to mobile manufacturers. This included a ₹50,000 crore (equivalent to ₹590 billion or US$7.4 billion in 2023) production-linked incentive on goods made locally in India.^[128][129] Five Indian firms would also be selected for the scheme.^[130]
• On 8 June religious places, malls and restaurants were permitted to open all over India, except in the containment zones.^[131][126]
• On 20 June the Garib Kalyan Rojgar Abhiyaan was launched to tackle the impact of COVID-19 on migrant workers in India. It is a rural public works scheme with an initial funding of ₹500 billion (US$7.0 billion) covering 116 districts in 6 states.^{[132][133][134]}

Unlock 2

• On 1 July new guidelines came into place related to the lockdown. While there were certain relaxations; schools, colleges, gyms, movie halls, metros etc. will remain closed.^[135]
• On 29 July, the Cabinet of India passed the National Educational Policy 2020 aimed at strengthening India's education sector and in turn the economy.^[136]

Unlock 3

• From 5 August onwards gym and yoga centres could begin opening.^[137]
• On 11 August, in a video-conference between the Prime Minister and states, the states asked for more funding to fight COVID-19.^[137]
• On 23 August, the government announced economic measures to tackle effect of COVID-19.^[138]
• On 30 August, the government announced more economic measures.^[138]

Unlock 4

• On 1 September new guidelines were announced by the centre as well as the states in the graded re-opening of the economy and society.^[139][140]
• On 11 September Delhi Metro resumed normal operations with pre-COVID-19 timings.^[141]

Unlock 5

• In October, unlock 5 began seeing more of society and the economy open up.^[142]
• In October, cinemas reopen as a part of Unlock 5 as India bends the COVID-19 pandemic curve.^[143]
• On 12 October, the government announced a ₹73,000 crore (equivalent to ₹860 billion or US$11 billion in 2023) worth economic stimulus package, labelled as Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan 2.0.^[21]

November

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