Economic history of Iraq - Biblioteka.sk

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Economic history of Iraq
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Economy of Iraq
Empire World, Erbil City
CurrencyDinar (IQD)
Calendar year
Trade organisations
OPEC
Country group
Statistics
PopulationIncrease 46,504,560 (2024)[3]
GDP
GDP rank
GDP growth
  • 8.8% (2023) 9.6% (2024)[4]
GDP per capita
  • Increase $5,970.86 (2024) [4]
  • Increase $11,408.38 (PPP, 2022 est.)[4]
GDP per capita rank
GDP by sector
4.9% (2022)[4]
Population below poverty line
  • 12% (2024)[5]
  • 57.3% on less than $5.50/day (2024)[6]
29.5 low (2012)[7]
Labour force
  • Increase 10,378,577 (2019)[10]
  • Decrease 36.4% employment rate (2017)[11]
Labour force by occupation
UnemploymentNegative increase 13.0% (2017)[12]
Main industries
petroleum, chemicals, textiles, leather, construction materials, food processing, fertilizer, metal fabrication/processing
External
ExportsIncrease $92.77 billion (2018)[13]
Export goods
crude oil 92%, crude materials excluding fuels, food and live animals
Main export partners
ImportsIncrease $56.84 billion (2018 est.)[13]
Import goods
food, medicine, manufactures
Main import partners
FDI stock
  • Increase $26.63 billion (2015 est.)[5]
  • Increase Abroad: $2.109 billion (2015 est.)[5]
Increase $47.113 billion (2022)[5]
Public finances
Positive decrease 10% of GDP (2024)
−3.056% (of GDP) (2021 est.)
Revenues69.56 billion (2021 est.)
Expenses100 billion (2024)
B− (Fitch, January 2022)[16]
Increase $115 billion (February 2023) [17] (24th)
All values, unless otherwise stated, are in US dollars.

The economy of Iraq is dominated by the oil sector, which has provided about 99.7% of foreign exchange earnings during its modern history.[18] As of 2021, the oil sector provides about 92% of foreign exchange earnings.[19] Iraq's hitherto agrarian economy underwent rapid development following the 14 July Revolution (1958) which overthrew the Hashemite Iraqi monarchy. It had become the third-largest economy in the Middle East by 1980. This occurred in part because of the Iraqi government's successful industrialization and infrastructure development initiatives in the 1970s, which included irrigation projects, railway and highway construction, and rural electrification.[20]

In the 1980s, financial problems caused by massive expenditures in the Iran-Iraq War and damage to oil export facilities by Iran led the Ba'athist government to implement austerity measures, to borrow heavily, and to later reschedule foreign debt payments. Iraq suffered economic losses of at least $80 billion from the war.[21] In 1988, the hostilities ended. Oil exports gradually increased with the construction of new pipelines and restoration of damaged facilities, but again underwent a sharp decline after the Persian Gulf War. GDP dropped to one-fourth of the country's 1980 gross domestic product and continued to decline under postwar international sanctions, until receiving aid from the U.N. Oil-for-Food Programme in 1997.[22][20]

The Coalition Provisional Authority made efforts to modernize Iraq's economy after the 2003 U.S.-led invasion, through privatization and reducing the country's foreign debt. As a result Iraq's economy expanded rapidly during this time, though growth was stunted by the insurgency, economic mismanagement, and oil shortages caused by outdated technology.[20] Since mid-2009, oil export earnings have returned to levels seen before Operation New Dawn. Government revenues have rebounded, along with global oil prices. In 2011, Baghdad would increase oil exports above their then-current level of 1,900,000 bbl (300,000 m3) per day as a result of new contracts with international oil companies. It was thought likely to fall short of the 2,400,000 barrels (380,000 m3) per day it was forecasting in its budget. Iraq's recent contracts with major oil companies have the potential to greatly expand oil revenues, but Iraq will need to upgrade its oil processing, pipeline, and export infrastructure to enable these deals to reach their potential.

An improved security environment and an initial wave of foreign investment are helping to spur economic activity, particularly in the energy, construction, and retail sectors. Broader economic improvement, long-term fiscal health, and sustained increases in the standard of living still depend on the government passing major policy reforms and on the continued development of Iraq's massive oil reserves. Although foreign investors viewed Iraq with increasing interest in 2010, most are still hampered by difficulties acquiring land for projects and other regulatory impediments.

Economic growth

Historical GDP per capita development

Nominal GDP grew by 213% in the 1960s, 1325% in the 1970s, 2% in the 1980s, −47% in the 1990s, and 317% in 2000s.[23]

Real GDP per capita (measured in $1990 ) increased significantly during the 1950s, 60s and 70s, which can be explained by both higher oil production levels as well as oil prices, which famously peaked in the 1970s due to the OPEC's oil embargo, causing the 1973 oil crisis. In the following two decades, however, GDP per capita in Iraq dropped substantially because of multiple wars, namely the 1980-88 war with Iran, the 1990-1991 Gulf War.[24]

Iran-Iraq War

Before the outbreak of the war with Iran in September 1980, the economic outlook was positive. In 1979, oil production reached a level of 560,000 m³ (3.5 million barrels) per day, and oil revenues were 21 billion dollars in 1979 and $27 billion in 1980 due to record oil prices. Iraq had amassed an estimated $35 billion in foreign exchange reserves. It was believed to have one of the best education and health care systems in the Middle East, and thousands of migrant workers from Egypt, Somalia, and the Indian subcontinent were employed in construction projects.[25] The Iran–Iraq War and the 1980s oil glut depleted Iraq's foreign exchange reserves, devastated its economy and left the country with a foreign debt of more than $40 billion. Oil exports gradually increased as new pipelines were constructed and damaged facilities were restored.

Sanctions

Iraq's seizure of Kuwait in August 1990, subsequent international economic sanctions on Iraq, and damage from military action by an international coalition beginning in January 1991, drastically reduced economic activity. The regime exacerbated shortages by supporting large military and internal security forces and by allocating resources to key supporters of the Ba'ath Party. The implementation of the UN's Oil for Food program in December 1996 helped improve economic conditions. For the first six six-month phases of the program, Iraq was allowed to export increasing amounts of oil in exchange for food, medicine, and other humanitarian goods. In December 1999, the UN Security Council authorized Iraq to export as much oil as required to meet humanitarian needs. Per capita, food imports increased substantially, while medical supplies and health care services steadily improved, though per capita economic production and living standards were still well below their prewar level.

Iraq changed its oil reserve currency from the U.S. dollar to the euro in 2000. However, 28% of Iraq's export revenues under the program were deducted to meet UN Compensation Fund and UN administrative expenses. The drop in GDP in 2001 was largely the result of the global economic slowdown and lower oil prices.

After invasion of Iraq 2003

The removal of sanctions on 24 May 2003 and rising oil prices in the mid-to-late 2000s led to a doubling in oil production from a low of 1.3 mbpd during the turbulence of 2003 to a high of 2.6 mbpd in 2011.[26] Furthermore, reduced inflation[27] and violence[28] since 2007 have translated to real increases in living standards for Iraqis.

One of the key economic challenges was Iraq's immense foreign debt, estimated at $130 billion.[29] Although some of this debt was derived from normal export contracts that Iraq had failed to pay for, some was a result of military and financial support during Iraq's war with Iran.[30]

The Jubilee Iraq campaign[31] argued that much of these debts were odious (illegitimate). However, as the concept of odious debt is not accepted,[32] trying to deal with the debt on those terms would have embroiled Iraq in legal disputes for years. Iraq decided to deal with its debt more pragmatically and approached the Paris Club of official creditors.

In a December 2006 Newsweek International article, a study by Global Insight in London was reported to show "that Civil war or not, Iraq has an economy, and—mother of all surprises—it's doing remarkably well. Real estate is booming. Construction, retail and wholesale trade sectors are healthy, too, according to . The U.S. Chamber of Commerce reports 34,000 registered companies in Iraq, up from 8,000 three years ago. Sales of secondhand cars, televisions and mobile phones have all risen sharply. Estimates vary, but one from Global Insight puts GDP growth at 17 per cent last year and projects 13 per cent for 2006. The World Bank has it lower: at 4 per cent this year. But, given all the attention paid to deteriorating security, the startling fact is that Iraq is growing at all."[33]

Industry

Since 1974, after the Iraqi Government took direct control of Iraq’s largest private oil production operations, Mosul Oil and Basra Oil, most of Iraq's manufacturing activity has been closely connected to the oil industry.[citation needed] The major industries in that category have been petroleum refining and the manufacture of chemicals and fertilizers. Before 2003, diversification was hindered by limitations on privatization and the effects of the international sanctions of the 1990s. Since 2003, security problems have blocked efforts to establish new enterprises. The construction industry is an exception; in 2000 cement was the only major industrial product not based on hydrocarbons. The construction industry has profited from the need to rebuild after Iraq's several wars. In the 1990s, the industry benefited from government funding of extensive infrastructure and housing projects and elaborate palace complexes.

Primary sectors

Agriculture

Agriculture contributes just 3.3% to the gross national product but employs a fifth of the labor force.[34]

Historically, 50 to 60 per cent of Iraq's arable land was under cultivation.[35][self-published source?] Under the UN Oil for Food program, Iraq imported large quantities of grains, meat, poultry, and dairy products. In 1981, the government abolished its collective farming program. During the Gulf War, Iraqi agriculture was disrupted physically and suffered from Economic sanctions imposed by the United Nations. Imports were curtailed, petroleum exports were cut off and agricultural production with potential military application was halted. The Iraqi government responded by monopolizing grain and oilseed marketing, imposing production quotas, and instituting a Public Distribution System for basic foodstuffs. By mid-1991, the government supplied a "basket" of foodstuffs that provided about one-third of the caloric daily requirement and cost consumers about five percent of its market value. With subsidies for agricultural inputs diminished, the government's prices failed to cover their costs. Tax on agricultural production reached 20 to 35 percent by the mid-1990s. In October 1991 the Baghdad regime withdrew personnel from the northern region controlled by two Kurdish parties. Kurdistan Region was described as "... a market economy essentially left alone by a fragile governing structure, but heavily influenced by substantial international humanitarian aid flows."[36]

In December 1996, under an "Oil for Food Program" negotiated with the United Nations, Iraq started exporting petroleum and used the proceeds to import foodstuffs. Grain imports averaged $828 million from 1997 to 2001, an increase of over 180 percent from the previous five-year period. Due to foreign competition, Iraqi production declined (29 percent for wheat, 31 percent for barley, and 52 percent for maize). Because the government had neglected the production of forage crops, fruits, vegetables, and livestock other than poultry, those sectors were less buffeted by international affairs. Nevertheless, they were affected by severe drought, an outbreak of screwworm, and an epizootic of foot-and-mouth disease[37] As the Oil for Food Program expanded to cover more agricultural inputs and machinery, the productivity of Iraqi agriculture stabilized around 2002.

After the U.S. invasion in March 2003, many Iraqis became dependent on government-subsidized food. The US-funded agricultural reconstruction program thus focused on increased productivity under the aegis of Agricultural Reconstruction and Development Iraq (ARDI).[38] Another program was run by Development Alternatives, Inc. (DAI) of Bethesda, Maryland. The restoration of Iraq's irrigation systems was largely funded by Bechtel International.

ARDI conducted trials to improve farming practices and crop varieties of winter cereals (wheat and barley), summer cereals (rice, maize, and sorghum), potatoes, and tomatoes. Feed supplements and veterinary treatments were introduced to increase ovulation, conception, and birth weights of livestock. Surveys were conducted of poultry growers and apple farmers. Nurseries were established for date palms and grapes. ARDI had projects promoting trade associations and producers' co-ops and supported extension as an appropriate governmental function. The contract eventually cost over $100 million and lasted through December 2006. Under its Community Action Program, USAID also funded an analysis of markets for sheep and wool. It awarded a contract to the University of Hawaii to revitalize higher education in agriculture. It awarded a contract for $120 million to the Louis Berger Group to promote Iraq's private sector, including agriculture.[39]

Starting in 2006, Provincial Reconstruction Teams were sent in to promote goodwill and sap the insurgency. "PRTs" allowed military commanders to identify local needs and, with few bureaucratic hurdles, to dispense up to $500,000. Civilians from many agencies within the U.S. Department of Agriculture, as well as USAID, served tours on PRTs. Some participants criticized the absence of a national agricultural strategy, or clear direction on the design of projects. Others complained that projects emphasized "American-style, 21st-century agricultural technologies and methodologies..." that were inappropriate for Iraq.[40]

Agricultural production did not rebound from the reconstruction program. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), between 2002 and 2013, the production of wheat increased 11 percent and milled rice 8 percent, but barley had decreased 13 percent and maize 40 percent. Scaled in "international dollars" (2004-2006 base equaling 100) Iraq's per capita food production was 135 in 2002, 96 in 2007, and 94 in 2012. The agricultural sector shed workers. In those same years, production per worker was 117, 106, and 130, respectively.[41]

The international Oil-for-Food program (1997–2003) further reduced farm production by supplying artificially priced foreign foodstuffs. Because of favorable weather conditions, grain production was 22 percent higher than in 2002. Although growth continued in 2004, experts predicted that Iraq would be an importer of agricultural products for the foreseeable future. Long-term plans call for investment in agricultural machinery and materials and more prolific crop varieties—improvements that did not reach Iraq's farmers under the Hussein regime. In 2004, the main crops were wheat, barley, corn, rice, vegetables, dates, and cotton, and the main livestock outputs were cattle and sheep.

The Agricultural Cooperative Bank, capitalized at nearly 1 G$ - by 1984, targets its low-interest, low-collateral loans to private farmers for mechanization, poultry projects, and orchard development. Large modern cattle, dairy, and poultry farms are under construction. Obstacles to agricultural development include labor shortages, inadequate management and maintenance, salinization, urban migration, and dislocations resulting from previous land reform and collectivization programs.

In 2011, an agricultural adviser to the Iraqi government, Layth Mahdi, summarized the forced United States agricultural reconstruction:

Before 2003, Iraq had imported about 30 per cent of its food needs annually. The decline in agricultural production after this period, created the need for importing 90 per cent of the food at a cost estimated at more than $12 billion annually. Due to the sudden shift in the agricultural policy from subsidized assistance to an immediate shift to a free market policy, the outcomes led to a decline in production. The observed outcome resulted in many farmers abandoning the land and agriculture. The impact on natural resources results in an exploited and degraded environment leaving the land destitute and the people impoverished, unemployed experiencing a sense of losing their human dignity.[42]

Importation of foreign workers and increased entry of women into traditionally male labour roles have helped compensate for agricultural and industrial labour shortages exacerbated by the war. A disastrous attempt to drain the southern marshes and introduce irrigated farming to this region merely destroyed a natural food producing area, while concentration of salts and minerals in the soil due to the draining left the land unsuitable for agriculture.[43]

In the Mada'in Qada region east of Baghdad, hundreds of small farmers united to form the Green Mada'in Association for Agricultural Development, an agricultural cooperative that provides its members with drip irrigation and greenhouses as well as access to credit.[44]

In recent years, farmers have been confronted with reduced rainfall and high temperatures. Particularly affected are small scale farmers who, unable to withstand lower water levels, are forced to leave their lands in search of different ways to fulfill their livelihoods.[45]

Forestry, fishing, and mining

Throughout the twentieth century, human exploration, shifting agriculture, forest fires, and uncontrolled grazing denuded large areas of Iraq's natural forests, which in 2005 were almost exclusively confined to the northeastern highlands. Most of the trees found in that region are not suitable for lumbering. In 2002, a total of 112,000 cubic meters of wood were harvested, nearly half of which was used as fuel.[citation needed]

Despite its notable large rivers, Iraq's fishing industry has remained relatively small and based largely on marine species in the Persian Gulf. In 2001, the approximate yield was 8,000 tons (compared to 18,000/t during the period between 1981-1997) according to official government estimates.[46]

Aside from hydrocarbons, Iraq's mining industry has been confined to extraction of relatively small amounts of phosphates (at Akashat), salt, and sulfur (near Mosul). Since a productive period in the 1970s, the mining industry has been hampered by the Iran–Iraq War (1980–88), the sanctions of the 1990s, and the economic collapse of 2003.[47]

Energy

A map of world oil reserves according to U.S. EIA, 2017

Iraq is one of the most oil-rich countries in the world. The country holding the fifth largest proven crude oil reserves,[48]: 5  totalling 147.22 billion barrels at the end of 2017.[49] Most of this oil—4 million barrels per day out of 4.3 million barrels produced daily—is exported, making Iraq the third-largest exporter of oil.[48]: 5  Despite its ongoing civil war, Iraq was able to increase oil production during 2015 and 2016, with production dipping by 3.5 per cent in 2017 due to conflict with the Kurdistan Regional Government and OPEC production limits.[48]: 5  By world standards, production costs for Iraqi oil are relatively low.[50] However, four wars[51]—the 1980–1988 Iraq-Iran War, 1991 Gulf War, the 2003–2011 War in Iraq, and the civil war—and the 1991–2003 UN sanctions have left the industry's infrastructure in poor condition, and the de facto independence of oil-rich Kurdistan Region have limited production.[48]: 5–6 

In the 1970s, Iraq produced over 3.5 million barrels of oil per day. Production began to fall during the Iran-Iraq War, before plummeting 85 per cent after the 1991 invasion of Kuwait. UN sanctions prevented the export of oil until 1996, and then allowed exports only in exchange for humanitarian aid in the Oil-for-Food Programme.[51] The 2003 lifting of sanctions enabled production—and exports—to restart.[51] Production has since recovered to pre-Gulf War levels, and most of Iraq's oil infrastructure has been repaired, despite persistent sabotage by the Islamic State (ISIL) and others.[52] In 2004, Iraq had eight oil refineries, the largest of which were at Baiji, Basra, and Daura.[53]

Despite its oil wealth, sabotage and technical problems at refineries have forced Iraq to import petroleum, other refined oil products, and electricity from neighbouring countries, especially Iran.[54] In 2004, for example, Iraq spent $60 million per month for imported gasoline. Sabotage In late 2004 and early 2005, regular sabotage of plants and pipelines reduced export and domestic distribution of oil, particularly to Baghdad. Nationwide fuel shortages and power outages resulted.[53] Persistent ISIL sabotage of pipelines, power plants and power lines, and theft of oil and electricity have also contributed to the July 2018 protests in southern Iraq.[54]

In 2004, plans called for increased domestic utilization of natural gas to replace oil and for use in the petrochemical industry. However, because most of Iraq's gas output is associated with oil, output growth depends on developments in the oil industry.

Half of Iraq's power plants were destroyed in the Persian Gulf War of 1991, and full recovery never occurred.[55] In mid-2004, Iraq had an estimated 5,000 megawatts of power-generating capacity, compared with 7,500 megawatts of demand.[56] At that time, the transmission system included 17,700 kilometres of line. In 2004, plans called for construction of two new power plants and restoration of existing plants and transmission lines to ease the blackouts and economic hardship caused by this shortfall, but sabotage and looting kept capacity below 6,000 megawatts. The ongoing civil war, sabotage of transmission lines, and government corruption caused the electricity shortage to worsen: by 2010 demand outstripped supply by 6000 megawatts.[56]

Oil continues to dominate Iraq's economy. As of 2018, oil is responsible for over 65 per cent of GDP, 90 per cent of government revenue.[48] Petroleum constitutes 94% of Iraq's exports with a value of $59.73 billion in 2017.[57] The central government hopes to diversify the economy away from oil, and has had some success: non-oil GDP growth, which was below the regional average from 2014 to 2016, pushed above the average in 2017.[48]: 4  Despite this, the per cent of government spending going to non-oil investment has continued to decline since 2013 and now stands at only 34 per cent.[48]: 4 

2009 oil services contracts

Between June 2009 and February 2010 the Iraqi Oil Ministry tendered for the award of Service Contracts to develop Iraq's existing oil fields. The results of the tender, which were broadcast live on Iraqi television, are as follows for all major fields awarded but excluding the Kurdistan Region where Production Sharing Contracts have been awarded that are currently being disputed by the Baghdad government. All contracts are awaiting final ratification of the awards by the Iraqi government. Company shares are subject to change as a result of commercial negotiations between parties.

Field Company Home country Region Company type Share in field Production increase share Service fee per bbl Gross revenue at plateau - US bn p.a. References
Majnoon Shell Netherlands Europe Public 45% 0.7875 1.39 0.4 BBC Archived 7 March 2012 at the Wayback Machine
Petronas Malaysia Asia State 30% 0.525 1.39 0.266 Shell
Halfaya CNPC China Asia State 37.5% 0.525 1.39 0.102 Upstream Archived 12 January 2016 at the Wayback Machine
Petronas Malaysia Asia State 18.75% 0.099 1.4 0.051 Upstream Archived 26 September 2012 at the Wayback Machine
TotalEnergies France Europe Public 18.75% 0.099 1.39 0.051
Rumaila BP UK UK Public 37.5% 0.7125 2 0.520 Business Week
CNPC China Asia State 37.5% 0.7125 1.39 0.520
Zubair ENI Italy Europe Public 32.81% 0.328 2 0.240 Business Week
Occidental US US Public 23.44% 0.2344 2 0.171 Business Week[dead link]
KOGAS Korea Asia State 18.75% 0.1875 2 0.137 Business Week Archived 7 October 2011 at the Wayback Machine
West Qurna Field Phase 2 Lukoil Russia Russia Public 75.00% 1.3500 1.15 0.567 Business Week
Equinor Norway Europe State n/a[58] n/a n/a n/a Equinor Archived 25 January 2012 at the Wayback Machine
Badra Gazprom Russia Russia State 30% 0.051 5.5 0.102 Business Week
Petronas Malaysia Asia State 15% 0.0255 5.5 0.051 Upstream Archived 7 October 2011 at the Wayback Machine
KOGAS Korea Asia State 23% 0.03825 5.5 0.077 Upstream Archived 7 October 2011 at the Wayback Machine
TPAO Turkey Asia State 8% 0.01275 5.5 0.026
West Qurna Field Phase 1 Exxon US US Public 60% 1.2276 1.9 0.851 Business Week[dead link]
Shell Netherlands Netherlands Public 15% 0.3069 1.9 0.213 Alfred Donovan's blog Archived 29 February 2012 at the Wayback Machine (royaldutchshellplc.com)

Notes:

  1. Field shares are as a % of the total. The Iraqi state retains a 25% share in all fields for which service contracts have been awarded.
  2. Production increase share is the millions of bbls per day that will attract the service fee for the company.
  3. Gross revenue at plateau is the total payment each company will receive upon reaching their declared target plateau production rate (in between 5 and 8 years, depending on the field), before deduction of any operating costs, in addition to recovery of all development costs as billions of US dollars per annum. The total gross revenue for all companies, after recovery of capital costs, is at plateau production of an additional 9.4 mb/d, 4.34 bn US per annum, at a $70 bbl oil price. The 2010 Iraq govt budget is $60 billion. $300 billion is approximately $10,000 per annum for each Iraqi citizen.

In summary the shares by region in the increased production are:

Zdroj:https://en.wikipedia.org?pojem=Economic_history_of_Iraq
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Region Production
Share mb/d
% of
total
Iraq 1.462 25%
Asia 1.9 20%
UK 1.81 19%
US 1.462 16%
Russia 1.402 14%