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| Venezuelan presidential crisis | |||
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| Part of the crisis in Venezuela | |||
Juan Guaidó (left) and Nicolás Maduro (right) | |||
| Date | 10 January 2019 – 5 January 2023 (3 years, 11 months and 26 days) | ||
| Location | |||
| Caused by |
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| Goals |
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| Methods | Protests, support campaigns, foreign diplomatic pressure and international sanctions | ||
| Resulted in | Status quo
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| Lead figures | |||
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| Crisis in Venezuela |
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 Venezuela portal |
Crisis and protests in Latin America in 2019 | |
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The Venezuelan presidential crisis was a political crisis concerning the leadership and the legitimate president of Venezuela between 2019 and 2023, with the nation and the world divided in support for Nicolás Maduro or Juan Guaidó.
Venezuela is engulfed in a political and economic crisis which has led to more than seven million people leaving the country since 2015. The process and results of the 2018 presidential elections were widely disputed.[1][2] The opposition-majority National Assembly declared Maduro a usurper of the presidency on the day of his second inauguration and disclosed a plan to set forth its president Guaidó as the succeeding acting president of the country under article 233 of the Venezuelan Constitution.[2][5] A week later, the Supreme Tribunal of Justice declared that the presidency of the National Assembly was the "usurper" of authority and declared the body to be unconstitutional.[2] Minutes after Maduro took the oath as president, the Organization of American States (OAS) approved a resolution in a special session of its Permanent Council declaring Maduro's presidency illegitimate and urging new elections.[6] Special meetings of the OAS on 24 January and in the United Nations Security Council on 26 January were held but no consensus was reached. Secretary-General of the United Nations António Guterres called for dialogue.[7] During the 49th General Assembly of the Organization of American States on 27 June, Guaidó's presidency was recognized by the organization.[8] Guaidó and the National Assembly declared he was acting president and swore himself in on 23 January.[4]
At his peak, Guaidó was recognized as legitimate by about 60 countries, despite never running as president; Maduro by about 20 countries.[9][10][11] However, Guaidó's international support waned over time.[12] Internationally, support followed geopolitical lines, with Russia, China, Cuba, Iran, Syria, and Turkey supporting Maduro, while the majority of Western and Latin American countries supported Guaidó as acting president.[9][13][14] Support for Guaidó began to decline when a military uprising attempt in April 2019 failed to materialize.[15][16] Following the failed uprising, representatives of Guaidó and Maduro began mediation, with the assistance of the Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution.[17] After the second meeting in Norway, no deal was reached.[18] In July 2019 negotiations started again in Barbados with representatives from both sides.[19][20][21] In September, Guaidó announced the end of dialogue following a forty-day absence by the Maduro government as a protest against the recent sanctions by the United States. In March 2020, the United States proposed a transitional government that would exclude both Maduro and Guaidó from the presidency.[22] U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that sanctions did not apply to humanitarian aid during the coronavirus pandemic health emergency and that the United States would lift all sanctions if Maduro agreed to organize elections that did not include himself.[23] Guaidó accepted the proposal,[24] while Venezuela's foreign minister, Jorge Arreaza, rejected it.[25]
By January 2020, efforts led by Guaidó to create a transitional government had been unsuccessful and Maduro continued to control Venezuela's state institutions.[26][27][28] In January 2021, the European Union stopped recognizing Guaidó as president, but still did not recognize Maduro as the legitimate president;[29] the European Parliament reaffirmed its recognition of Guaidó as president,[30][31] and the EU threatened with further sanctions.[29] After the announcement of regional elections in 2021, Guaidó announced a "national salvation agreement" and proposed the negotiation with Maduro with a schedule for free and fair elections, with international support and observers, in exchange for lifting international sanctions.[32]
In December 2022, three of the four main opposition political parties (Justice First, Democratic Action and A New Era) backed and approved a reform to dissolve the interim government and create a commission of five members to manage foreign assets, as deputies sought a united strategy ahead of the next Venezuelan presidential election scheduled for 2024,[33][34] stating that the interim government had failed to achieve the goals it had set.[35]
Background
Since 2010, Venezuela has been suffering a socioeconomic crisis under Nicolás Maduro and briefly under his predecessor Hugo Chávez, as rampant crime, hyperinflation and shortages as a result of sanctions, diminish the quality of life.[36][37] Javier Corrales stated in a 2020 Journal of Democracy that Maduro "presided over one of the most devastating national economic crises seen anywhere in modern times."[38] As a result of discontent with the government, the opposition was elected to hold the majority in the National Assembly for the first time since 1999 following the 2015 parliamentary election.[39] After the election, the lame duck National Assembly consisting of Bolivarian officials filled the Supreme Tribunal of Justice, the highest court in Venezuela, with Maduro allies.[39][40] The tribunal stripped three opposition lawmakers of their National Assembly seats in early 2016, citing alleged "irregularities" in their elections, thereby preventing an opposition supermajority which would have been able to challenge President Maduro.[39]
In January 2016, the National Assembly declared a "health humanitarian crisis" given the "serious shortage of medicines, medical supplies and deterioration of humanitarian infrastructure", asking Maduro's government to "guarantee immediate access to the list of essential medicines that are basic and indispensable and that must be accessible at all times."[41]
| External videos | |
|---|---|
 Human Rights Watch multimedia report regarding the 2017 protests on YouTube |
The tribunal approved several actions by Maduro and granted him more powers in 2017.[39] As protests mounted against Maduro, he called for a constituent assembly that would draft a new constitution to replace the 1999 Venezuela Constitution created under Chávez.[42] According to Rafael Villa – writing in Defence Studies in 2022 – "Maduro's leadership not consensual" and among the changes he had made to overcome his "political fragility" was promoting an excessive number of officers within the military, and the election of a 2017 Constituent National Assembly to replace the opposition-led National Assembly, which was elected in 2015.[43][44] Many countries considered these actions a bid by Maduro to stay in power indefinitely,[45] and over 40 countries stated that they would not recognize the 2017 Constituent National Assembly (ANC).[46][47] The Democratic Unity Roundtable, the main opposition to the incumbent ruling party, boycotted the election, saying that the ANC was "a trick to keep in power."[48] Since the opposition did not participate in the election, the Great Patriotic Pole coalition and its supporters, including the incumbent United Socialist Party of Venezuela, won all seats in the assembly by default.[49] On 8 August 2017, the ANC declared itself to be the government branch with supreme power in Venezuela, banning the opposition-led National Assembly from performing actions that would interfere with the assembly while continuing to pass measures in "support and solidarity" with President Maduro, effectively stripping the National Assembly of all its powers.[50]
Maduro disavowed the National Assembly in 2017.[51][52] As of 2018, some considered the National Assembly the only "legitimate" institution left in the country[a] and human rights organizations said there were no independent institutional checks on presidential power.[b]
2018 election and calls for transitional government
In February 2018, Maduro called for presidential elections four months before the prescribed date.[66] He was declared the winner in May 2018 after multiple major opposition parties were banned from participating, among other irregularities; many said the elections were invalid.[67] Some politicians both internally and internationally said Maduro was not legitimately elected[68] and considered him an ineffective dictator.[69] In the months leading up to his 10 January 2019 inauguration, Maduro was pressured to step down by nations and bodies including the Lima Group (excluding Mexico), the United States and the OAS; this pressure was increased after the new National Assembly of Venezuela was sworn in on 5 January 2019.[70][71] Between the May 2018 presidential election and Maduro's inauguration, there were calls to establish a transitional government.[72][73]
Signs of impending crisis showed when a Supreme Tribunal Justice and Electoral Justice seen as close to Maduro defected to the United States just a few days before the 10 January 2019 second inauguration of Nicolás Maduro. The justice, Christian Zerpa, said that Maduro was "incompetent" and "illegitimate".[70][71][74] Minutes after Maduro took the oath as president of Venezuela, the OAS approved a resolution in a special session of its Permanent Council declaring Maduro's presidency illegitimate and urging new elections.[6] Maduro's election was supported by Turkey, Russia, China, and the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (ALBA).[75][76]
In December 2018, Guaidó had traveled to Washington, D.C., met with OAS Secretary General Luis Almagro. On 14 January 2019, he traveled to Colombia for a Lima Group meeting, in which Maduro's mandate was rejected. According to an article in El País, the January Lima Group meeting and the stance taken by Canadian Minister of Foreign Affairs Chrystia Freeland were key. El País describes Donald Trump's election—coinciding with the election of conservative presidents in Colombia and Brazil, along with deteriorating conditions in Venezuela—as "a perfect storm", with decisions influenced by U.S. officials including Vice President Mike Pence, Secretary of State Pompeo, National Security Advisor John Bolton and legislators Mario Díaz-Balart and Marco Rubio. Venezuelans Carlos Vecchio, Julio Borges and Gustavo Tarre were consulted and the Trump administration decision to back Guaidó formed on 22 January, according to El País. Díaz-Balart said that the decision was the result of two years of planning.[77]
Justification for the challenge
The Venezuelan opposition says its actions are based on the 1999 Constitution of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, specifically Articles 233, 333 and 350.[78]
The first paragraph of Article 233 states that "when the president-elect is absolutely absent before taking office, a new election shall take place And while the president is elected and takes office, the interim president shall be the president of the National Assembly."[79][c][d]
Article 333 calls for citizens to restore and enforce the Constitution if it is not followed.[79][c] Article 350 calls for citizens to "disown any regime, legislation or authority that violates democratic values, principles and guarantees or encroaches upon human rights."[81][82][c]
Article 233 was invoked after the death of Hugo Chávez in 2013, which took place soon after his inauguration, and extraordinary elections were called within thirty days.[83][84] Invoked by the National Assembly, Guaidó was declared acting president until elections could be held; Diego A. Zambrano, an assistant professor of law at Stanford Law School, says that "Venezuelan lawyers disagree on the best reading of this provision. Some argue Guaidó can serve longer if the electoral process is scheduled within a reasonable time."[85] The National Assembly announced that it will designate a committee to appoint a new National Electoral Council, in anticipation of free elections.[86]
2019 events
Inauguration of Maduro
In January 2019, Leopoldo López's Popular Will party attained the leadership of the National Assembly of Venezuela according to a rotation agreement made by opposition parties, naming Juan Guaidó as president of the legislative body.[87]
Guaidó began motions to form a provisional government shortly after assuming his new role on 5 January 2019, stating that whether or not Maduro began his new term on the 10th, the country would not have a legitimately elected president in either case,[88][non-primary source needed] calling for soldiers to "enforce the Constitution"[89][non-primary source needed] Signs of impending crisis showed when a Supreme Court Justice and Electoral Justice seen as close to Maduro defected to the United States just a few days before the 10 January 2019 second inauguration of Nicolás Maduro. The justice, Christian Zerpa, said that Maduro was "incompetent" and "illegitimate".[90][91][74] Minutes after Maduro took the oath as president of Venezuela, the OAS approved a resolution in a special session of its Permanent Council declaring Maduro's presidency illegitimate and urging new elections.[92] Maduro's election was supported by Turkey, Russia, China, and the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (ALBA).[76]
Guaidó announced a public assembly, referred to as an open cabildo, on 11 January, a rally in the streets of Caracas, where Guaidó spoke on behalf of the National Assembly saying that the country had fallen into a de facto dictatorship and had no leader.[93][94] Guaidó said that the National Assembly would "take the responsibility that touches us".[94] Leaders of other political parties, trade unions, women, and students also spoke at the rally.[95][non-primary source needed] The opposition considered assuming the powers of the executive branch legitimate based on constitutional processes; The National Assembly specifically invoked Articles 233, 333, and 350 of the Constitution.[96][95] Guaidó announced nationwide protests to be held on 23 January—the same day as the removal of Marcos Pérez Jiménez in 1958—using a slogan chant of ¡Sí se puede!.[96][97] The National Assembly worked with the coalition Frente Amplio Venezuela Libre to create a plan for the demonstrations, organizing a unified national force.[98] On 11 January, plans to offer incentives for the armed forces to disavow Maduro were announced.[99]
Guaidó declared acting president
During Guaidó's speech, he said he was "willing to assume command ... only possible with the help of Venezuelans".[5] Following Guaidó's speech, the National Assembly released a press statement saying that Guaidó had assumed the role of acting president. The Assembly retracted the statement later published another clarifying Guaidó's position as "willing to assume command ... only possible with the help of Venezuelans".[5]
Maduro's response was to call the opposition a group of "little boys", describing Guaidó as "immature". The Minister for Prison Services, Iris Varela, threatened that she had picked out a prison cell for Guaidó and asked him to be quick in naming his cabinet so she could prepare prison cells for them as well.[100]
The president of the Supreme Tribunal of Justice of Venezuela in exile, based in Panama, wrote to Guaidó, requesting him to become acting president of Venezuela.[101] OAS Secretary-General Luis Almagro was the first to give international official support to Guaidó's claim, tweeting "We welcome the assumption of Juan Guaidó as interim president of Venezuela in accordance with Article 233 of the Political Constitution. You have our support, that of the international community and of the people of Venezuela."[96] Later that day, Brazil and Colombia gave their support to Guaidó as acting president of Venezuela.[102]
Guaidó briefly detained, plans continue
Guaidó was detained on 13 January by the Bolivarian Intelligence Service (SEBIN)[103] and released 45 minutes later.[104] The SEBIN agents who intercepted his car and took him into custody were fired.[105][106] The Information Minister, Jorge Rodríguez, said the agents did not have instructions and the arrest was orchestrated by Guaidó as a "media stunt" to gain popularity; BBC News correspondents said that it appeared to be a genuine ambush to send a message to the opposition.[105] Almagro condemned the arrest, which he called a "kidnapping", while Pompeo referred to it as an "arbitrary detention".[107] After his detention, Guaidó said that Rodríguez's admission that the SEBIN agents acted independently showed that the government had lost control of its security forces; he called Miraflores (the presidential palace) "desperate",[105][107] and stated: "There is one legitimate president of the National Assembly and of all Venezuela."[108]
On 15 January 2019, the National Assembly approved legislation to work with dozens of foreign countries to request that these nations freeze Maduro administration bank accounts.[109] Guaidó wrote a 15 January 2019 opinion piece in The Washington Post entitled "Maduro is a usurper. It's time to restore democracy in Venezuela"; he outlined Venezuela's erosion of democracy and his reasoning for the need to replace Maduro on an interim basis according to Venezuela's constitution.[110]
On 21 January, over two dozen National Guardsmen participated in a mutiny against Maduro with the assistance of residents in the area during the early morning hours. Government forces repressed the protestors tear gas and the officers were later captured.[111][112] During the night, over thirty communities in Caracas and surrounding areas participated in strong protests against the Maduro government.[113] The strongest protests occurred in San José de Cotiza, where the rebel National Guardsmen were arrested, with demonstrations spreading throughout nearby communities, with cacerolazos heard throughout Caracas.[113] One woman who was confused for a protester was killed in San José de Cotiza by members of a colectivo, who stole her phone.[114] On 22 January, Vice President Mike Pence called Guaidó personally and assured him that the United States would support his declaration.[115]
Guaidó declares himself acting president
On 23 January, Guaidó swore to serve as acting president.[4] On that morning, Guaidó tweeted, "The world's eyes are on our homeland today."[116][117] On that day, millions of Venezuelans[118] demonstrated across the country and world in support of Guaidó,[119][120] with a few hundred supporting Maduro outside Miraflores.[121][122] At one end of the blocked street was a stage where Guaidó spoke and took an oath to serve as interim president.[123][124][125] Minutes after his speech, the United States announced that it recognized Guaidó as interim president while presidents Iván Duque of Colombia and Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil, beside deputy Canadian prime minister Chrystia Freeland, announced at the World Economic Forum that they too recognized him.[115]
The Venezuelan National Guard used tear gas on gathering crowds at other locations,[123] and blocked protesters from arriving.[116] Some protests grew violent,[126] and at least 13 people were killed.[127] Michelle Bachelet of the United Nations requested a UN investigation into the security forces' use of violence.[128]
Guaidó began to appoint individuals in late January to serve as aides or diplomats, including Carlos Vecchio as the Guaidó administration's diplomatic envoy to the US,[129] Gustavo Tarre to the OAS,[130] and Julio Borges to represent Venezuela in the Lima Group.[131] He announced that the National Assembly had approved a commission to implement a plan for the reconstruction of Venezuela,[132][133] called Plan País (Plan for the Country),[134] and he offered an Amnesty law, approved by the National Assembly, for military personnel and authorities who help to "restore constitutional order".[135][136] The Statute Governing the Transition to Democracy was approved by the National Assembly on 5 February.[137]
As of July 2019, the National Assembly had approved Juan Guaidó's appointment has named 37 ambassadors and foreign representatives to international organizations and nations abroad.[138][139][140][141]
