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All 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly and 21 (of the 42) seats in the Legislative Council 47 Assembly seats are needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Registered | 5,521,688 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 4,861,148 (88.04%) (  2.96 pp) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2023 New South Wales state election was held on 25 March 2023 to elect the 58th Parliament of New South Wales, including all 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly and 21 of the 42 seats in the Legislative Council. The election was conducted by the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC).
The incumbent minority Liberal/National Coalition government, led by Premier Dominic Perrottet, sought to win a fourth successive four-year term in office, though were defeated by the opposition Labor Party, led by Opposition Leader Chris Minns. The Greens, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party, other minor parties and several independents also contested the election. The outcome resulted in the first Labor government in the state in 12 years, ending the longest Coalition government in New South Wales history.[1] It was also the first time since 1995 that Labor had won a New South Wales state election from opposition.[2] The election also marked the second time in history that the Australian Labor Party gained control of the entirety of Mainland Australia at the federal and state levels simultaneously (leaving Tasmania as the only state with a Liberal government), a feat last achieved in 2007.[3][4]
Though the Coalition was defeated, Labor were unable to win enough seats to govern in majority, resulting in a hung parliament. But Labor will be able to govern with the support of independent MPs Alex Greenwich, Greg Piper, and Joe McGirr, who will guarantee Labor confidence and supply.[5] Piper also made an agreement with Labor to become the Speaker of the Lower House, a role which he had been preparing for by doing duty as a deputy speaker.[6]
New South Wales has compulsory voting, with optional preferential, instant runoff voting in single-member seats for the lower house, and single transferable voting with optional preferential above-the-line voting in the proportionally represented upper house.
The online voting system iVote was not used in this election. The NSW government suspended iVote after the 2021 NSW local council elections saw five wards impacted by access outages, with three significant enough that analysis suggested as high as a 60% chance the wrong candidate had been elected, after which the NSW Supreme Court ordered those elections voided and re-run.[7]
Background
Previous election
At the 2019 election, the Coalition won a third term in government for the first time since 1971 while Gladys Berejiklian became the first woman in New South Wales to lead a party to a state election victory. The Liberals won 35 seats while the Nationals won 13 seats, thus giving the Coalition a combined total of 48 seats, one more than the minimum 47 required for a majority.
The Labor Party won 36 seats and overtook the Liberals to become the largest single party in the Legislative Assembly. However, the party only managed to gain two seats from the Coalition, Coogee and Lismore.
The Greens strengthened their hold on the three seats they held prior to the election while the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers held onto Orange, a seat the party had won from the Nationals at a by-election, while also taking Barwon and Murray from the Nationals.
Independents Greg Piper and Alex Greenwich both retained the seats of Lake Macquarie and Sydney, respectively, while Joe McGirr successfully held on to the seat of Wagga Wagga he won in a by-election.
Change of premiership, resignations and minority government
Internal splits within the government became apparent in August and September 2020, when proposed laws protecting the habitats of koalas resulted in Nationals leader John Barilaro threatening to refuse to support government legislation and sit on the crossbench, while still holding ministerial positions. Berejiklian threatened to sack all Nationals ministers if they did not abandon their plan by 11 September 2020.[8] Following a meeting between the Premier and Deputy Premier on the morning of 11 September, the Nationals backed down on their decision to move to the crossbench.[9]
On 1 October 2021 Berejiklian resigned as Premier following the launch of an Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) investigation into her having possibly breached public trust or encouraged corrupt behaviour during her relationship with the former member of Wagga Wagga, Daryl Maguire.[10] At a subsequent Liberal party room meeting, Liberal deputy leader and New South Wales Treasurer Dominic Perrottet was chosen as her successor.[11] Findings about the case were not released prior to the election.[12] Despite this, Berejiklian still recorded high approval ratings, with psephologist Antony Green even claiming that should she have remained Premier, the Coalition would have been the favourites to win the election.[13]
The government initially held a two-seat majority, which was technically only a one-seat majority with the omission of Liberal member Jonathan O'Dea as Speaker, who only has a casting vote. In May 2021 the government lost its majority on the floor of the parliament as Minister for Families, Communities and Disability Services Gareth Ward resigned from the ministry and moved to the crossbench after identifying himself as being the subject of an inquiry by the New South Wales Police Force's sex crimes and child abuse squad, for which he was later charged with offences.[14] Ward denied the allegations, though in March 2022 he was suspended from the parliament, which remains in effect until the conclusion of the criminal proceedings.[15][16] Less than two months prior to Ward's resignation from the ministry, Liberal member for Drummoyne John Sidoti also moved to the crossbench to sit as an independent, after ICAC announced it would open an inquiry into his personal property dealings.[17] Both Sidoti and Ward's resignations meant the government was officially in minority status. This status was further cemented in February 2022, when the Liberals lost the seat of Bega at a by-election to the Labor Party, causing the Coalition to slip to 45 seats in the 93-seat Assembly.[18]
In March 2022 a bill moved by the Greens, to change the state's constitution and allow MPs to meet virtually during a declared emergency such as a pandemic, passed the parliament and in so doing, became the first non-government bill opposed by the government to pass the parliament since the Liberal/National Coalition came to power at the 2011 state election.[19] The following month the Opposition Leader Chris Minns stated the Labor Party would not move or support a motion of no confidence against the government or seek to deny it supply, indicating the government will be able to serve the full term and avoid a snap election.[20] The success of the teal independents at the 2022 federal election prompted concern from Liberal MPs Tim James and Matt Kean, and along with other concerns caused Perrottet to portray himself as increasingly moderate.[21][22]
On 29 March 2022 the Supreme Court of NSW dissolved the Christian Democratic Party.[23][24] The race will be the first NSW state election since 1981 at which the Christian Democratic Party ("Call to Australia" prior to 1998) will not be contesting.
On 20 October 2022 Tania Mihailuk MP resigned from the NSW Labor Party[25] and announced on 17 January 2023, that she would be running second on the One Nation ticket in the election for the Legislative Council, behind party leader Mark Latham.[26]
From a poll that followed the Nazi uniform scandal, 67% said it didn't make a difference to their vote, 20% said it would make them less likely to vote for the Coalition and 8% said the scandal would make them more likely to vote for the Coalition.[27]
Possibility of a hung parliament
It was widely predicted that the election would lead to a hung parliament, meaning that a party wishing to form government must obtain confidence and supply from crossbenchers. The Greens were almost certain to side with Labor, while the three ex-Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party independents would have likely sided with the Coalition. Three other independents (Alex Greenwich, Greg Piper and Joe McGirr) had given confidence and supply to the Coalition. After the election, the three confirmed that they would give confidence and supply to Labor should it be required, as Labor only won 45 seats, two seats short of a majority.[28]
Campaign
On 12 January Premier Dominic Perrottet revealed that he had worn a Nazi uniform as fancy dress at his 21st birthday, apologising at a media conference after a cabinet minister was made aware of the incident. This announcement received extensive media coverage.[29][30] Despite the scandal, Perrottet received the support of his ministerial colleagues, and Labor leader Chris Minns chose not to call for Perrottet's resignation.[31][32] Robert Borsak, the leader of the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party, publicly threatened to refer Perrottet to police over the incident.[33] On 5 March 2023, NSW Labor Party had their official campaign launch.[34]
On 9 March a significant outage of the Sydney rail network caused by a communications failure saw Perrottet to apologise to customers and offer a fare-free day.[35]
On 11 March the Greens NSW had their campaign launch, where they listed their balance of power objectives.[36]
On 12 March the Liberal Party had their official campaign launch.[37][38]
On 14 March confidential documents from KPMG and Clayton Utz consultants regarding the privatisation of Sydney Water were made public. Perrottet, who was the Treasurer at the time had previously declared in March 2020 that he had no plans to even do a study on privatisation, but the documents revealed that studies had taken place in January 2020 and later in November 2021, with the reporting making it clear the study was done due to direct pressure from the Government.[39] The issue was widely discussed in Sydney newspapers and on right-wing talkback radio where commentators slammed the potential privatisation and declared that Perrottet was lying about his "lack of plans" to privatise Sydney Water.
On 21 March it was reported that Perrottet had been accused of seeking special treatment via the health minister when requesting ambulance services.[40][41][42]
Labor recommended its supporters preference the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party to counter One Nation in some seats.[43]
Policies
In the 2023 New South Wales election campaign, Chris Minns and Labor made election promises to invest further into public services.[44]
Minns has been criticised for being reluctant to promise reform on money laundering in gambling,[45] however on 16 January Minns released a plan to reform gambling, banning donations from clubs (gambling organisations) to political parties and promising a cashless gaming card trial, which would last for 12 months and cover 500 of the approximately 86,480 (0.58%) pokies machines (slots).[46][47] Dominic Perrottet and the Liberals announced plans to introduce a cashless gaming card for pokie machines in clubs and pubs in NSW,[48] but a transition period where non-metropolitan pokies may be excluded from the pilot program has been discussed.[49]
One Nation ran on a platform of nuclear power and parental rights.[50]
NSW Labor pledged to enshrine government ownership of Sydney Water in the NSW state constitution,[51][52] a similar move that the Victorian government was doing with the state's SEC.
Leaders' debates
The first leaders' debate was held on Thursday, 9 February 2023 on 2GB. Perrottet was declared the winner, with the support 65% of voters in an online poll following the debate.[53]
A Channel 7 leaders debate between Labor and Liberal leaders was held on 8 March 2023.[54]
A Channel 9 leaders debate between Labor and Liberal leaders was held on 15 March 2023.[55][56]
A Sky News Australia leaders debate was held on 22 March 2023.[57]