Opinion polling for the 2001 United Kingdom general election - Biblioteka.sk

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Opinion polling for the 2001 United Kingdom general election
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In the run up to the general election of 2001, several polling organisations carried out opinion polling in regards to voting intention in Great Britain (i.e. the UK excluding Northern Ireland, which is usually excluded from such voting intention surveys). Results of such polls are displayed below.

The election took place on 7 June 2001. The previous general election was held on 1 May 1997, and had seen Labour return to power with a landslide victory after 18 years, led by Tony Blair. Such was the scale of Labour's victory that it was widely accepted - even within the Conservative Party - that the next election would produce another Labour victory, with the best realistic target for other parties being to reduce the Labour majority (recognised by Cecil Parkinson on Election Night 1997 when he stated on the BBC's broadcast that it "was a two term Labour government").

The parliamentary term of 1997-2001 had seen the opinion polls led by the Labour Party, mostly with a lead in excess of 10 points, over the Conservatives (who had replaced John Major with William Hague as their new leader), apart from a brief spell in the autumn of 2000 when fuel protests threatened to bring Britain to a standstill. However, the blockades which had caused the protests were quickly resolved and Labour support recovered to the extent that Blair felt able to call an election for 3 May 2001, although the recent foot and mouth crisis meant that the election was delayed for five weeks until 7 June.

Another rare success for the Conservatives during this parliamentary term came in June 1999, when it enjoyed the largest share of the votes in the European parliament elections, with William Hague vowing to keep the pound as Britain's currency, whereas Tony Blair was refusing to rule out eventually adopting the Euro.

In the event, the election produced a low turnout (with many voters perhaps feeling that another Labour victory was inevitable) and Labour won a second successive landslide, with the British political scene remaining almost completely unchanged with only a few seats changing hands.

All polling data is from Ipsos MORI, UK polling Report and BBC News.[1][2][3]

Exit polls

Two exit polls conducted by MORI for ITV and NOP for BBC was published at the end of voting at 10 pm, predicting the number of seats for each party.[4][5]

Parties MORI for ITV NOP for BBC
Seats Change Seats Change
Labour Party 417 Decrease 2 408 Decrease 11
Conservative Party 154 Decrease 11 177 Increase 12
Liberal Democrats 58 Increase 12 44 Decrease 2
Others 30 Increase 1 30 Increase 1
Majority: 175 157

Graphical Summary

  Labour
  Conservatives
  Liberal Democrats

National poll results

2001

Date(s)
conducted
Pollster Client Sample
size
Lab Con Lib Dem Others Lead
7 Jun 2001 general election[6] 40.7% 31.7% 18.3% 9.3% 9%
6 Jun Gallup The Daily Telegraph 2,399 47% 30% 18% ? 17%
5–6 Jun MORI The Times 1,906 45% 30% 18% ? 15%
2–4 Jun ICM The Guardian 1,009 43% 32% 19% 6% 11%
2–3 Jun ICM Evening Standard 1,381 47% 30% 18% ? 17%
3 Jun Rasmussen The Independent ? 44% 33% 16% ? 11%
31 May2 Jun MORI The Sunday Telegraph 1,070 50% 27% 17% ? 23%
31 May1 Jun ICM The Observer 1,005 46% 34% 15% ? 12%
31 May1 Jun NOP The Sunday Times 1,105 47% 30% 16% ? 17%
30 May1 Jun ICM Channel 4 1,007 43% 31% 19% ? 12%
29 May MORI The Times 1,013 48% 30% 16% ? 18%
28–29 May Gallup The Daily Telegraph 1,462 47% 31% 16% ? 16%
26–28 May ICM The Guardian 1,000 47% 28% 17% 8% 19%
27 May Rasmussen The Independent ? 44% 32% 17% ? 12%
24–25 May NOP The Sunday Times ? 49% 30% 14% ? 19%
21–23 May Gallup The Daily Telegraph 1,000 48% 32% 15% ? 16%
22 May MORI Times 1,066 52% 27% 16% ? 25%
22 May Rasmussen The Independent ? 44% 32% 16% ? 12%
19–21 May ICM The Guardian 1,000 45% 32% 17% 7% 13%
20 May Gallup BES ? 55% 25% 14% ? 30%
17–18 May NOP The Sunday Times 1,107 49% 30% 14% ? 19%
15 May MORI The Times 1,019 54% 28% 12% 6% 26%
14–15 May Gallup The Daily Telegraph 1,004 48% 32% 13% 7% 16%
13–14 May ICM The Guardian 1,004 46% 31% 16% 7% 15%
14 May Gallup BES ? 53% 32% 11% ? 21%
10–14 May MORI The Economist 1,846 54% 26% 14% 6% 28%
14 May Parliament dissolved and official campaign period begins[7]
11–13 May ICM Evening Standard 1,437 48% 32% 14% 6% 16%
13 May Rasmussen The Independent 1,004 46% 32% 13% 9% 14%
10–12 May MORI The Sunday Telegraph 1,030 51% 31% 13% 5% 20%
10–11 May ICM The Observer 1,011 48% 32% 15% 5% 16%
10–11 May NOP The Sunday Times 1,003 49% 32% 13% 6% 17%
2–8 May Gallup The Daily Telegraph 1,000 49% 32% Zdroj:https://en.wikipedia.org?pojem=Opinion_polling_for_the_2001_United_Kingdom_general_election
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