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Pennsylvania is generally considered a swing state that leans slightly left. Throughout its entire history, it voted for the nationwide loser on only 10 occasions (1824, 1884, 1892, 1912, 1916, 1932, 1948, 1968, 2000, and 2004), meaning it has voted for the national winner 83% of the time as of 2020. Although, it generally supported Republicans between the Civil War and New Deal eras, as it voted Republican in every election between 1860 and 1932, except for 1912, when the Republican vote was split. Even then, the state's strong Republican ties meant that it backed Republican-turned-Progressive Theodore Roosevelt. The state backed a Democrat in 1936 for the first time since 1856. Pennsylvania generally leaned Democratic since the 1990s, as it backed the Democratic presidential candidate in every election since 1992 except in 2016, when it was won by Republican candidate Donald Trump with a plurality.[1]
In 2008, Democrat Barack Obama won the state by a margin of over 10 percent, the largest victory seen in a presidential election in Pennsylvania since Richard Nixon's victory in 1972. In 2016, Donald Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to win Pennsylvania since George H.W. Bush in 1988, winning by a margin of 0.7 percent. In 2020, Democrat Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump in the state by 1.2 percent.
Pennsylvania currently has a split government, with the governor's office being held by a Democrat Josh Shapiro and the state house being controlled by the Democratic Party and the state senate being controlled by the Republican Party. In the United States Senate, Pennsylvania is represented by Democrats Bob Casey Jr. and John Fetterman. In the United States House of Representatives, Pennsylvania is represented by nine Democrats and eight Republicans.
Pennsylvania’s former Senator, Arlen Specter, announced in April 2009 that he was switching his party affiliation from Republican to Democratic, citing the Republicans' shift to the right since he was elected in 1980, though others suspected he switched because he would face a tough Republican primary election in 2010.[2] As it turned out, he ended up losing the Democratic primary to Representative Joe Sestak. Congressman Sestak narrowly lost the general election to Pat Toomey in November 2010, returning the Senate seat to Republicans.
History
| Year | Republican / Whig | Democratic | Third party | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. | % | No. | % | No. | % | |
| 2020 | 3,379,055 | 48.69% | 3,461,221 | 49.87% | 100,173 | 1.44% |
| 2016 | 2,970,742 | 48.17% | 2,926,458 | 47.45% | 269,738 | 4.37% |
| 2012 | 2,680,434 | 46.57% | 2,990,274 | 51.95% | 84,912 | 1.48% |
| 2008 | 2,655,885 | 44.15% | 3,276,363 | 54.47% | 83,228 | 1.38% |
| 2004 | 2,793,847 | 48.42% | 2,938,095 | 50.92% | 37,648 | 0.65% |
| 2000 | 2,281,127 | 46.43% | 2,485,967 | 50.60% | 146,025 | 2.97% |
| 1996 | 1,801,169 | 39.97% | 2,215,819 | 49.17% | 489,130 | 10.85% |
| 1992 | 1,791,841 | 36.13% | 2,239,164 | 45.15% | 928,805 | 18.73% |
| 1988 | 2,300,087 | 50.70% | 2,194,944 | 48.39% | 41,220 | 0.91% |
| 1984 | 2,584,323 | 53.34% | 2,228,131 | 45.99% | 32,449 | 0.67% |
| 1980 | 2,261,872 | 49.59% | 1,937,540 | 42.48% | 362,089 | 7.94% |
| 1976 | 2,205,604 | 47.73% | 2,328,677 | 50.40% | 86,506 | 1.87% |
| 1972 | 2,714,521 | 59.11% | 1,796,951 | 39.13% | 80,633 | 1.76% |
| 1968 | 2,090,017 | 44.02% | 2,259,405 | 47.59% | 398,506 | 8.39% |
| 1964 | 1,673,657 | 34.70% | 3,130,954 | 64.92% | 18,079 | 0.37% |
| 1960 | 2,439,956 | 48.74% | 2,556,282 | 51.06% | 10,303 | 0.21% |
| 1956 | 2,585,252 | 56.49% | 1,981,769 | 43.30% | 9,482 | 0.21% |
| 1952 | 2,415,789 | 52.74% | 2,146,269 | 46.85% | 18,911 | 0.41% |
| 1948 | 1,902,197 | 50.93% | 1,752,426 | 46.92% | 80,525 | 2.16% |
| 1944 | 1,835,054 | 48.36% | 1,940,479 | 51.14% | 19,260 | 0.51% |
| 1940 | 1,889,848 | 46.33% | 2,171,035 | 53.23% | 17,831 | 0.44% |
| 1936 | 1,690,200 | 40.84% | 2,353,987 | 56.88% | 94,239 | 2.28% |
| 1932 | 1,453,540 | 50.84% | 1,295,948 | 45.33% | 109,689 | 3.84% |
| 1928 | 2,055,382 | 65.24% | 1,067,586 | 33.89% | 27,642 | 0.88% |
| 1924 | 1,401,481 | 65.34% | 409,192 | 19.08% | 334,177 | 15.58% |
| 1920 | 1,218,216 | 65.76% | 503,843 | 27.20% | 130,557 | 7.05% |
| 1916 | 703,823 | 54.25% | 521,784 | 40.22% | 71,685 | 5.53% |
| 1912 | 273,360 | 22.45% | 395,637 | 32.49% | 548,739 | 45.06% |
| 1908 | 745,779 | 58.84% | 448,782 | 35.41% | 72,889 | 5.75% |
| 1904 | 840,949 | 68.00% | 337,998 | 27.33% | 57,791 | 4.67% |
| 1900 | 712,665 | 60.74% | 424,232 | 36.16% | 36,313 | 3.10% |
| 1896 | 728,300 | 60.98% | 433,228 | 36.27% | 32,827 | 2.75% |
| 1892 | 516,011 | 51.45% | 452,264 | 45.09% | 34,735 | 3.46% |
| 1888 | 526,091 | 52.74% | 446,633 | 44.77% | 24,844 | 2.49% |
| 1884 | 478,804 | 52.97% | 392,785 | 43.46% | 32,275 | 3.57% |
| 1880 | 444,704 | 50.84% | 407,428 | 46.57% | 22,651 | 2.59% |
| 1876 | 384,184 | 50.62% | 366,204 | 48.25% | 8,605 | 1.13% |
| 1872 | 349,589 | 62.07% | 212,041 | 37.65% | 1,632 | 0.29% |
| 1868 | 342,280 | 52.20% | 313,382 | 47.80% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 1864 | 296,391 | 51.75% | 276,316 | 48.25% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 1860 | 268,030 | 56.26% | 16,765 | 3.52% | 191,647 | 40.22% |
| 1856 | 147,286 | 32.01% | 230,686 | 50.13% | 82,189 | 17.86% |
| 1852 | 179,104 | 46.18% | 198,562 | 51.20% | 10,173 | 2.62% |
| 1848 | 185,313 | 50.28% | 171,976 | 46.66% | 11,263 | 3.06% |
| 1844 | 161,125 | 48.59% | 167,447 | 50.50% | 3,000 | 0.90% |
| 1840 | 144,010 | 50.00% | 143,676 | 49.88% | 340 | 0.12% |