In meteorology the Ellrod index is a technique for forecasting clear-air turbulence (CAT). It is calculated based on the product of horizontal deformation and vertical wind shear derived from numerical model forecast winds aloft.

The deformation predictors are calculated using following information.

• Shearing deformation:

${\displaystyle DSH={\frac {dv}{dx}}+{\frac {du}{dy}}}$.

• Stretching deformation:

${\displaystyle DST={\frac {du}{dx}}-{\frac {dv}{dy}}}$.

Where u and v are horizontal components of the wind.

• Total deformation equals to:

${\displaystyle DEF={\sqrt {DSH^{2}+DST^{2}}}}$.

• Convergence:

${\displaystyle CVG=-({\frac {du}{dx}}+{\frac {dv}{dy}})}$

• Vertical wind shear:

${\displaystyle VWS={\frac {\Delta V}{\Delta Z}}}$

And the resulting index is given by:

${\displaystyle EI=VWS\times (DEF+CVG)}$

To correspond to clear-air turbulence pilot reports the following table can be used:

See also

• Aviation Weather Center

External links

• Aviation Weather Center Ellrod Forecast

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