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Next United Kingdom general election
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2024 United Kingdom general election
United Kingdom
← 2019 4 July 2024

All 650 seats in the House of Commons.
Figures below show state of
the Commons at dissolution.
326 seats needed for a majority
Party Leader Seats
Conservative Rishi Sunak 346
Labour Keir Starmer 205
SNP John Swinney[a] 43
Liberal Democrats Ed Davey 15
DUP Gavin Robinson 7
Sinn Féin Mary Lou McDonald[b] 7
Plaid Cymru Rhun ap Iorwerth[c] 3
SDLP Colum Eastwood 2
Alba Alex Salmond[d] 2
Green Carla Denyer and
Adrian Ramsay
1
Alliance Naomi Long 1
Workers Party George Galloway 1
Reform UK Nigel Farage[e] 1
Independent N/A 15
Speaker Lindsay Hoyle 1
This lists parties that won seats. See the complete results below.
Prime Minister before
Rishi Sunak
Conservative

The 2024 United Kingdom general election is scheduled to be held on Thursday, 4 July 2024.[1] It will determine the composition of the House of Commons, which determines the Government of the United Kingdom. Significant constituency boundary changes will be in effect, the first such changes since before the 2010 general election. It will be the first UK general election where voter identification is required to vote in person in Great Britain.[f] The general election will be the first since the UK's departure from the European Union on 31 January 2020, which was a major issue in the previous election; it will also be the first to take place under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022.

Discussion around the campaign has been focused on the prospect of a change in government, with the opposition Labour Party led by Keir Starmer having a significant lead in polling over the governing Conservative Party led by Rishi Sunak. Public opinion in favour of a change in government was reflected in the Conservatives' poor performance at the 2022 and 2023 local elections, where Labour and the Liberal Democrats made gains from Conservatives, often by very wide margins. The parties made further gains in the 2024 local elections, in which both Labour and the Liberal Democrats had a greater number of successful candidates than the Conservatives. Many by-elections were won by their candidates during the parliament. A record number of Conservative MPs are not standing for re-election.[2]

Background

Political background

The Conservative Party had been in government since May 2010, when the party, then led by David Cameron, won the most seats in the 2010 general election and led a coalition with the Liberal Democrats, then led by Nick Clegg. In 2015, the Conservatives won a small majority in the general election of that year, but Cameron resigned the following year in the aftermath of the European Union referendum and was succeeded by Theresa May. In 2017, the Conservatives lost their majority in the general election of that year and governed as a minority government with support of the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland.[3] In 2019, May resigned and was succeeded by Boris Johnson, who led the Conservatives into the 2019 general election where the party won a large majority, after which it governed under three separate leaders and prime ministers; from Johnson (2019-2022) to Liz Truss (September 2022-October 2022) to Rishi Sunak (since October 2022).

Under the aforementioned three leaders, the Conservatives saw a decrease in their opinion polling as a result of several high-profile scandals and two government crises. Johnson resigned amid a government crisis following a string of controversies including Partygate that characterised his premiership and severely damaged his personal reputation,[4] while Truss resigned the shortest substantive premiership in British history amid an economic and political crisis.[5] Sunak assumed the premiership on 25 October 2022,[6][7] and under his leadership the Conservatives performed poorly at the 2023 local elections, where Labour and the Liberal Democrats made gains from Conservatives, often by very wide margins.[8] The parties made further gains in the 2024 local elections, in which both Labour and the Liberal Democrats had a greater number of successful candidates than the Conservatives.[9] Many by-elections were won by their candidates during the parliament. A record number of Conservative MPs are not standing for re-election.[2]

The Scottish National Party changed leaders three times, from Nicola Sturgeon (2014–2023) to Humza Yousaf (2023–2024) to John Swinney from 6 May 2024. Sturgeon resigned following heavy criticism for her positions on gender reforms and claimed occupational burnout was the reason for her resignation,[10] while Yousaf resigned amid a government crisis following his termination of a power-sharing agreement with the Scottish Greens.[11] Swinney assumed the leadership on 8 May 2024.[12] In 2022, Ian Blackford stepped down as the Westminster SNP leader and was succeeded by Stephen Flynn.

Keir Starmer won the Labour Party's leadership election, succeeding Jeremy Corbyn.[13] Ed Davey won the Liberal Democrat's leadership election, succeeding Jo Swinson.[14] Jeffrey Donaldson was leader of the Democratic Unionist Party from 2021 but resigned on 29 March 2024 after being charged with historical sex offences,[15] and Gavin Robinson succeeded him as leader after winning the DUP leadership election.[16][17]

Parliament background

The results of the 2019 general election are given below, alongside the numbers in the House of Commons at dissolution. Seat counts changed through 23 by-elections and a number of defections and suspensions of members from their party that took place throughout the 2019–2024 parliament. There were no vacant seats at dissolution.

Affiliation Members
Elected
in 2019
[18]
At dissolution
in 2024[19]
Difference
Conservative 365 346 Decrease 19
Labour[g] 202 205 Increase 3
SNP 48 43 Decrease 5
Liberal Democrats 11 15 Increase 4
DUP 8 7 Decrease 1
Sinn Féin 7 7 Steady
Plaid Cymru 4 3 Decrease 1
SDLP 2 2 Steady
Alba N/A[h] 2[i] Increase 2
Green 1 1 Steady
Alliance 1 1 Steady
Workers Party N/A[h] 1 Increase 1
Reform UK[j] 0 1 Increase 1
Speaker 1 1 Steady
Independent 0 15[k] Increase 15
Vacant 0 0 Steady
Total 650 650 Steady
Effective total voting[l] 639 638 Decrease 1[m]
Majority 87 44[24] Decrease 43

For full details of changes during the 2019-2024 Parliament, see By-elections and Defections, suspensions and resignations.

In March 2022, Labour abandoned all-women shortlists, citing legal advice that continuing to use them for choosing parliamentary candidates would be an unlawful practice under the Equality Act 2010, since the majority of Labour MPs were now women.[25]

In March 2024, Reform UK announced an electoral pact with the Northern Irish unionist party TUV.[26][27] The TUV applied to run candidates as "TUV/Reform UK" on ballot papers, but that was rejected by the Electoral Office.[28] Reform UK also announced a pact with the Social Democratic Party (SDP), a minor, socially conservative, party, in some seats.[29]

Reading of the dissolution proclamation on the steps of the Royal Exchange.

On 22 May 2024, Sunak advised the King to order the dissolution of Parliament and called a general election for 4 July 2024.[30][31] The election will be the first to take place under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022, as well as the first under the reign of Charles III. The general election will also be the first since the UK's withdrawal from the European Union (Brexit having been a major issue in the previous election), and the first July general election since 1945.[32]

Electoral system

General elections in the United Kingdom are organised using first-past-the-post voting. The Conservative Party, which won a majority at the 2019 general election, included pledges in its manifesto to remove the 15-year limit on voting for British citizens living abroad, and to introduce a voter identification requirement in Great Britain.[33] These changes were included in the Elections Act 2022.

Boundary reviews

The Sixth Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies, which proposed reducing the number of constituencies from 650 to 600, commenced in 2011 but temporarily stopped in January 2013. Following the 2015 general election, each of the four parliamentary boundary commissions of the United Kingdom recommenced their review process in April 2016.[34][35][36] The four commissions submitted their final recommendations to the Secretary of State on 5 September 2018[37][38] and made their reports public a week later.[39][40][41][37] However, the proposals were never put forward for approval before the calling of the general election held on 12 December 2019, and in December 2020 the reviews were formally abandoned under the Schedule to the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020.[42] A projection by psephologists Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher of how the 2017 votes would have translated to seats under the 2018 boundaries suggested the changes would have been beneficial to the Conservative Party and detrimental to the Labour Party.[43][44]

In March 2020, Cabinet Office minister Chloe Smith confirmed that the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies would be based on retaining 650 seats.[45][46] The previous relevant legislation was amended by the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020[47] and the four boundary commissions formally launched their 2023 reviews on 5 January 2021.[48][49][50][51] They were required to issue their final reports prior to 1 July 2023.[42] Once the reports had been laid before Parliament, Orders in Council giving effect to the final proposals had to be made within four months, unless "there are exceptional circumstances". Prior to the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 2020, boundary changes could not be implemented until they were approved by both Houses of Parliament. The boundary changes were approved at a meeting of the Privy Council on 15 November 2023[52] and came into force on 29 November 2023,[53] meaning that the election will be contested on these new boundaries.[54]

Notional 2019 results

The notional results of the 2019 election, if they had taken place under boundaries recommended by the Sixth Periodic Review.

The election will be contested under new constituency boundaries established by the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies. Consequently, media outlets tend to report seat gains and losses as compared to notional results. These are the results if all votes cast in 2019 were unchanged, but regrouped by new constituency boundaries.[55] Notional results in the UK are always estimated, usually with the assistance of local election results, because vote counts at parliamentary elections in the UK do not yield figures at any level more specific than that of the whole constituency.[56]

In England, seats will be redistributed towards Southern England, away from Northern England, due to the different rates of population growth. North West England and North East England will lose two seats each whereas South East England will gain seven seats and South West England will gain three seats.[57] Based on historical voting patterns, this is expected to help the Conservatives.[58] Based on these new boundaries, different parties would have won several constituencies with unchanged names but changed boundaries in 2019. For example, the Conservatives would have won Wirral West and Leeds North West instead of the Labour Party, but Labour would have won Pudsey and Heywood & Middleton instead of the Conservatives. Westmorland and Lonsdale, the constituency represented by former Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron, is now notionally a Conservative seat.

In Scotland, 57 MPs will be elected, down from the 59 in 2019, with the following notional partisan composition of Scotland's parliamentary delegation:[59] The Scottish National Party would remain steady on 48 seats, despite two of their constituencies being dissolved. The Scottish Conservatives' seat count of six would likewise remain unchanged. Scottish Labour would have retained Edinburgh South, the sole constituency they won in 2019. Had the 2019 general election occurred with the new boundaries in effect, the Scottish Liberal Democrats would have only won two seats (Edinburgh West and Orkney and Shetland), instead of the four they did win that year, as the expanded electorates in the other two would overcome their slender majorities.

Under the new boundaries, Wales will lose eight seats, electing 32 MPs instead of the 40 they elected in 2019. Welsh Labour would have won 18 instead of the 22 MPs they elected in 2019, and the Welsh Conservatives 12 instead of 14. Due to the abolition and merging of rural constituencies in West Wales, Plaid Cymru would have only won two seats instead of four. Nonetheless, the boundaries are expected to cause difficulty for the Conservatives as more pro-Labour areas are added to some of their safest seats.[60]

In Northern Ireland, the notional results are identical to the actual results of the 2019 general election in Northern Ireland.

Notional 2019 results on 2023 boundaries[56]
Party MPs
2019 actual result 2019 notional result Change
Conservative 365 372 Increase 7
Labour 202 200 Decrease 2
SNP 48 48 Steady
Liberal Democrats 11 8 Decrease 3
DUP 8 8 Steady
Sinn Féin 7 7 Steady
Plaid Cymru 4 2 Decrease 2
SDLP 2 2 Steady
Green 1 1 Steady
Alliance 1 1 Steady
Speaker 1 1 Steady

Date of the election

Sunak announcing the date of the election

Originally the next election was scheduled to take place on 2 May 2024 under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011.[n] At the 2019 general election, in which the Conservatives won a majority of 80 seats, the party's manifesto contained a commitment to repeal the Fixed-term Parliaments Act.[62] In December 2020, the government duly published a draft Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 (Repeal) Bill, later retitled the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022.[63] This entered into force on 24 March 2022. Thus, the prime minister can again request the monarch to dissolve Parliament and call an early election with 25 working days' notice. Section 4 of the Act provided: "If it has not been dissolved earlier, a Parliament dissolves at the beginning of the day that is the fifth anniversary of the day on which it first met." The Electoral Commission confirmed that the 2019 Parliament would, therefore, have to be dissolved, at the latest, by 17 December 2024, and that the next general election had to take place no later than 28 January 2025.[64][65]

With no election date fixed in law, there was speculation as to when Rishi Sunak, as prime minister, would call an election. On 18 December 2023, Sunak told journalists that the election would take place in 2024 rather than January 2025.[1] On 4 January, he first suggested the general election would probably be in the second half of 2024.[66] On 22 May 2024, following much speculation through the day,[67][68][69] Sunak officially announced the election would be held on 4 July with the dissolution of the Parliament on 30 May.[70]

Timetable

Key dates[71][72]
Date Day Event
22 May Wednesday Prime Minister Rishi Sunak requests a dissolution of parliament from King Charles III and announces the date of polling day for the general election as 4 July.
24 May Zdroj:https://en.wikipedia.org?pojem=Next_United_Kingdom_general_election
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